Technical Analysis | 2021/09/21 BTC Weekly Chart Price and Volume Analysis

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In "New Dimension | 2021/06/05 BTC Recent Cryptocurrency Market Risk Warning":

Referring to the BTC 1D daily chart above, it currently appears to be just a consolidation in the midst of a downtrend, with the possibility of further downward movement before a rebound to create a daily-level bear trap before a sudden surge. Of course, there is also a chance that this scenario may not occur, as market risks are constituted by such uncertainties. Therefore, investors who are bullish should cautiously control their positions to reduce risks (ideally entering the market again when a buy point emerges after another drop), while bearish investors should timely adjust their profit-taking and stop-loss positions to avoid chasing the market excessively during a decline.

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Indeed, the price later set a bear trap within the white box in the chart above, and after flipping the bottom, it surged by 23,000. Currently, the price has started to decline around 53,000, near the previous peak of the uptrend. For further understanding, please refer to the analysis below.

BTC Weekly Chart

The BTC weekly chart above provides a perspective based on the relationship between price and volume for readers to consider.

• Starting from point A, which surpassed the 2018 high of 20,000, it marks the beginning of a new major bullish trend. This trend, starting from point A and peaking at point B at 65,000 after a continuous rise of 45,000 points, corresponds to the trading volume in frame E. Within frame E, it can be observed that during the initial stage of the uptrend, the trading volume increases as the price rises. In the middle stage, as the price continues to rise, the trading volume remains steady. However, towards the end, despite the price rising, the trading volume gradually diminishes, leading to a subsequent downward reversal resulting in a drop of approximately 36,000 yuan (-53.68%).
• Subsequently, the market at point C, corresponding to the volume of trade in the white box F, underwent a consolidation phase, and at the end of this consolidation, a significant rebound began with a bear trap. Observing volume F, during this consolidation phase, except for the increased trading volume testing the bottom buying pressure at point C, the overall trading volume gradually decreases. This reduction in volume is a characteristic of price consolidation. During this consolidation period, to engage in daily level trading, one can only buy at the lower boundary of the consolidation range or wait for a clear bottom reversal before entering. Buy-in, follow with a trailing stop-loss, and consider technical pattern calculations to exit near the 53,000 satisfaction area for short-term opportunities.

• The monotonous rise from CD, corresponding to the trading volume G, is divergent from the price. This divergence is a result of the aggressive selling in the previous period, leading to increased cautiousness among market participants, with fewer willing to chase highs. In conjunction with the market sentiment manipulated by the main players for a quick profit, after meeting the calculated requirements of the pattern, observing short-term changes, there was an opportunity to exit the market at the peak on 9/7.
• Currently, from D onwards to the decline, the corresponding trading volume at H has not significantly increased. From the perspective of the weekly chart, the major bullish trend chips have not loosened. Therefore, as mentioned earlier, "the weekly uptrend amidst the daily downtrend may present a buying point on the weekly chart," which is worth noting.

Disclaimer:

• This article is for educational purposes and does not constitute any investment advice.
• Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile assets, so please invest with caution. Personal subjective opinions may not be suitable for everyone and are for reference only, not as trading recommendations.
• All analysis is based on the current market situation and does not predict future market changes. The author's analysis is for entertainment purposes and does not track all subsequent developments. It is recommended to maintain operational flexibility and adaptability.
• Generally speaking, all analysis is either "up or down or sideways," so the focus is never on predicting the future but on the underlying reasoning and understanding of the market.
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