Kaiko Analysis: Binance's market share returns to 50% with a golden cross; Ethereum spot ETF may not meet expectations

The data analytics platform Kaiko summarized the current situation of Bitcoin spot ETFs, mining company stock prices, exchange market share, and also mentioned that the trading volume for Ethereum futures was always low in the past. Will it be the same when spot ETFs are listed?

GBTC Net Outflow Slows, Bitcoin Rebounds

It is well known that GBTC has been experiencing continuous net outflows since its listing. However, after becoming a common occurrence across various sectors, the net outflows are now slowing down, and Bitcoin is experiencing a rebound, surpassing the $43,000 level.

Despite the outflow of funds, GBTC still manages $20 billion in assets.

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Mining Stocks Lag Behind Bitcoin

In 2023, publicly listed mining companies benefited from the rise in Bitcoin prices and saw astonishing gains. Apart from Argo Blockchain, which had a 162% increase in value, other mining companies' gains far exceeded that of Bitcoin, even during the bull market of 2021.

Since January 11th, the performance of Bitcoin-related stocks, including MicroStrategy, has been mixed. The performance of Bitcoin miners is significantly inferior to that of BTC.

Mining company gains far exceed Bitcoin; Marathon, Bitfarms have already surged over 500% this year

Market Liquidity Much Lower Than During FTX Era

A report by Kaiko in December pointed out that the recent rebound did not bring more liquidity to Bitcoin. Since the collapse of FTX, the trading volume and order depth of assets on all exchanges have significantly decreased, to less than half of what it was in October 2022.

At that time, Kaiko believed that Bitcoin spot ETF approval was needed for a recovery. However, among BTC-USD and BTC-USDT trading pairs on 14 exchanges, the top 2% of market depth has not yet returned to the level of over 10k BTC before the FTX bankruptcy, indicating that market makers have not fully returned.

Ethereum Spot ETF Not Looking Promising

Using the "Ethereum Futures ETF" as an example, Kaiko suggests that ETH lacks the same momentum as BTC when entering the traditional financial market.

Kaiko pointed out:

The BTC futures ETF "BITO" set a record for daily trading volume upon its listing in 2021. A year later, the ETH futures ETF was listed, and although the market environment was different, it is undeniable that ETH's trading volume was disappointing. The trading volume of EETH, AETH, and EFUT on the opening day was only a few million dollars, nearly a thousand times less than BITO's $1.2 billion trading volume on the opening day. Does this mean that an Ethereum spot ETF, if listed, would also perform poorly?

Binance Market Share Stabilizes, Welcomes Golden Cross

It has been over two months since Binance settled with the US Department of Justice, but its BUSD product suffered in February of last year and faced lawsuits from CFTC and SEC in March and June of the same year, causing a decline in market share.

However, Kaiko pointed out that Binance has skillfully utilized "zero-fee trading pair promotions" over the years to increase trading volume. With the approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF leading to a surge in trading volume, Binance's market share has returned to nearly 50%.

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