10x Research: Bitcoin's Bullish Trend Stemming from Macro Factors, Halving, ETF Not Necessarily Positive

Research analyst Markus Thielen from 10x Research stated that the current cryptocurrency market is overshadowed by selling pressure, and it is almost certain that prices will be pushed down in the short term.

Bitcoin ETF Flows Continue to Decline

Markus Thielen stated on a CoinDesk podcast that there are currently no catalysts to drive prices higher again:

We no longer have the upward momentum to push the price from $40,000 to $70,000, mainly due to the Bitcoin spot ETF. There has been almost no new capital inflow in the past few weeks, and investors have passed the initial excitement phase; traditional financial investors seem to have lost interest.

Previously, Markus Thielen remained bullish even as ETF flows declined, believing that stablecoins are the true indicator of capital inflows.

10x Research: Stablecoin Inflows Replace ETFs as Upside Momentum; ENA Could Reach $5

Unfavorable Macro Factors

Markus Thielen emphasized that macroeconomic conditions are the primary drivers of price increases. From the end of last year to early 2024, traders believed that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates multiple times this year, which boosted the prices of risk assets such as tech stocks and cryptocurrencies.

Markus Thielen:

The inflow of Bitcoin ETF funds did not suddenly stop but halted on March 12 when the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index were released.

He cited inflation reports from March and other data, pointing out that inflation remains well above the Fed's 2% target, leading the Fed to express uncertainty about further rate cuts.

Bitcoin Halving Not a Bullish Event

Bitcoin halvings often usher in bull markets, but Markus Thielen believes that it is macro factors rather than halving that drive Bitcoin's bull markets:

The upward trend is mainly due to the positive macro environment rather than the halving itself. For example, the last halving occurred in May 2020, accompanied by massive fiscal stimulus measures surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic, rate cuts, and money printing. I hardly attribute any price increases to halving.

He expects the market to enter a consolidation period lasting several weeks, with Bitcoin possibly dropping to $50,000 and rebounding before the end of the year.