MARKET

Bitcoin Hits New High of $8800! What topics have boosted the market? Events and data from the past two weeks summarized.

2020/1/15

As of the start of 2020, just two weeks in, Bitcoin has surged over 20%, rising from the 7200 yuan level in the first week to 8800 yuan today (15th). The market is also feeling the long-lost FOMO (fear of missing out). ChainNews has compiled recent events and data for an overview of the market dynamics.

Table of Contents

2020 has only been two weeks old, and Bitcoin has surged over 20%, rising from around 7200 USD in the first week to hitting 8800 USD today (15th). The market is experiencing a long-awaited taste of FOMO (fear of missing out). Here is a summary of recent events and data to keep track of the market dynamics.

"Topics" Are Easier to Manipulate Than Development Progress

Unpredictable Event—Iran's Missile Strike on U.S. Bases (Rise on Jan 8, Fall on Jan 9)

Crude oil and gold prices are sensitive to international events, and the speculative tactic of viewing Bitcoin as a "safe-haven asset" usually comes into play during such unexpected events. However, this international incident quickly simmered down. In fact, gold prices and Bitcoin show a low positive correlation, with Bitcoin's price not significantly affected, leading to a quick decline.

To learn more, you can review:

News on Jan 8: Iran Launches Missiles, Bitcoin Breaks 2020 High
Analysis on Iran's Bitcoin Demand: Iran Bitcoin Price Surge? Reality May Be the Opposite
Bitcoin-Gold Relationship: Despite Debates, Bitcoin and Gold Prices Still Show No Correlation

Predictable Events—Bitcoin Halving, Bitcoin Cash Halving, CME Options Launch (Rise from Jan 14)

The "Bitcoin Halving" is not a recent topic, but the closer it gets, the more media coverage it receives. Early buying before the halving may be one of the reasons for the market's rise.

The "Bitcoin Cash Halving" follows the same logic, affecting Bitcoin Cash whether it's BCHABC or BCHSV (the two branches from the hard fork on Nov 15, 2018), which show a strong positive correlation with Bitcoin (Pearson correlation coefficient—BCHABC > 0.7, BCHSV > 0.6). With Bitcoin's rise, they also experienced over 20% and over 100% increases within 24 hours on the 15th.

The rumor of the "Tulip Trust III," where BCHSV supporter Craig Wright claimed to have obtained the lost private keys to a large Bitcoin wallet, thus massively boosting BCHSV, is believed to be the reason for the frenzy.

Bitcoin vs. BCHABC/BCHSV Pearson Correlation

The notable event that saw a significant surge was the "CME Bitcoin Options Launch." CME launched trading on the 13th in Chicago time (14th in Taiwan), with the media promoting it by comparing it to the trading volume of Bakkt from the previous year. Whether this event signifies institutional entry or not, as a topic for speculation, it indeed attracted many participants.

To learn more about the "CME Bitcoin Options Launch": CME to Launch Bitcoin Options Contracts Tomorrow! JPMorgan Observes: Traditional Financial Institutions Will Be Involved

As shown in the chart below, market sentiment visibly fluctuates with these events, leading to feelings of greed and optimism among people. When surpassing $8300, market sentiment also exceeded the peak in December last year, reaching the same level as in November last year.