【Observation】U.S. Bank Predicts: Gold Expected to Reach $3,000 Within 18 Months

According to Bloomberg, Bank of America, one of the four largest banks in the United States, stated in a report titled "The Fed Can't Print Gold" that the bank has raised its 18-month gold price forecast to $3,000 per ounce, which is nearly 50% higher than the current price and represents a record high since 2009.

So, what about Bitcoin?

According to data from a website, comparing the Pearson correlation coefficient of SPDR Gold ETF (ticker: GLD) with Bitcoin, it is found that starting from mid-2019, Bitcoin and GLD have shown a significant trend towards a low positive correlation over the past year, even reaching a historical high of positive correlation in the second half of 2016 in the period from January to March 2020.

Although the correlation coefficient is still very low, overall, since 2013, Bitcoin has mostly been positively correlated with GLD. The proportion of positive correlation has been even higher since the era of ICOs (2017).

Whether we will see Bitcoin rise as a "scarce hedging asset" when gold prices rise remains to be seen. After all, if we look at the correlation coefficient, the correlation between the US stock market S&P 500 and Bitcoin has been too high recently (0.4-0.5). The US government's aggressive printing of money to support the stock market has made it difficult to evaluate whether stock values align with stock prices, adding more variables to Bitcoin's correlation behavior.

The cryptocurrency market still faces factors such as information asymmetry, uneven distribution of chips, mining costs, etc. The correlation coefficient should only be used as a reference, and it is recommended that investments be made more cautiously and diversified.