"Does Team Activity Equal Price Growth? Analyzing the Performance of Cryptocurrency Startups Over the Past Decade Through Code Data"

The quantitative institutions LUCIDA & FALCON have written an article exploring the relationship between "team activity" (measured through activity on the code repository Github) and "cryptocurrency prices." LUCIDA & FALCON conducted a comparative analysis of three different bull and bear cycles, quantifying the correlation between Github factors and prices.

Does Team Activity Impact Coin Price?

Main findings and conclusions include:

1. The cryptocurrency market has gone through various bull and bear cycles, including the ICO era, the rise of public chains, DeFi Summer, and the NFT craze.

2. The six Github factors used to measure "team activity" include: Star popularity of the code repository, Fork number of code derivatives, Commit number of code changes, Issues reporting errors and improvement suggestions, Pull requests requests from developers to merge development results into the main code repository, and Watchers number of code repository followers.

3. In the first bear market, five of the Github data factors, except Commit, showed a positive correlation with coin price.

4. In the second bull market, the correlation between the six Github factors and coin price significantly increased, showing a positive correlation with coin price.

5. In the second bear market, although there is still a positive correlation between Github factors and coin price, the intensity is slightly lower than in the bull market.

6. The correlation between Github data and coin price is significantly higher in bull markets than in bear markets.

7. From an investment perspective, investing in projects with active Github development may bring better returns, while avoiding investment in projects with inactive Github development.

Overall, the activity on Github shows a positive correlation with cryptocurrency prices, especially in bull markets, where projects with more active Github participation may experience higher price increases. However, in bear markets, while projects with active Github participation are relatively more resistant to price drops, their influence is relatively limited.

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