Trump's chances of winning increase, what dominates the market? Is Bitcoin also considered a Trump trade?

On Polymarket, the prediction market, the probability of Donald Trump winning the election has been steadily increasing since 10/5, surpassing his opponent, Joe Biden, with a winning probability of 64.2% as of 10/24. Bitcoin, on the other hand, has been gradually increasing from $61,000 on 10/5, but has been struggling to break through the $70,000 mark, causing impatience within the crypto community. What kind of Trump trades are prevailing in the market now?

US Dollar Strengthens, US Bond Yields Rise

In recent days, US bond yields and the US dollar have both strengthened simultaneously. According to Standard Chartered, the rise in the US dollar this month is mainly due to the market's bet on the increased likelihood of Trump winning the US presidential election. This has driven the appreciation of the US dollar, with calculations showing that 60% of this increase is related to the expectation of Trump's victory.

Trump advocates for imposing high tariffs on imported goods, which could potentially reignite inflation and raise interest rates. Other policy proposals such as tax cuts and deregulation aimed at stimulating economic growth and increasing corporate profitability are also contributing to the increased demand for the US dollar in the market.

During this period, the US Dollar Index has risen by 1.76%, while the ten-year US bond yield has increased by 7.04%.

Gold Hits Historical Highs Frequently

Gold has been hitting historical highs frequently this year due to geopolitical risks, the beginning of the US interest rate reduction cycle, and the uncertainty surrounding the US elections. Gold has risen by over 30% so far this year, although it seems to have less direct correlation with Trump's trade policies.

Is Bitcoin Riding the Trump Trade Train to Strength?

Will the crypto-friendly Trump policies help Bitcoin ride this Trump trade train to strength?

Although Bitcoin has been gradually rising from 61K on 10/5, it has been struggling to break through the psychological barrier of 70K. Despite various institutions predicting that a Trump victory would be more favorable for the regulation of cryptocurrencies, providing strong upward momentum for Bitcoin, the market does not seem to feel this optimistic atmosphere yet. Here are the price predictions for Bitcoin after Trump's election from various institutions:

• Standard Chartered: 200,000
• Bernstein: 90,000
• Bitwise: 250,000 without considering the election