Bitcoin Spot ETF Update: November 17th is the first opportunity, with a 90% chance of approval by January next year.
According to Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart's latest post, in 8 days, on November 17th, the first approval window for a Bitcoin spot ETF will open. He believes that the likelihood of approval by January 10th next year is as high as 90%.
New Research note from me today. We still believe 90% chance by Jan 10 for spot #Bitcoin ETF approvals. But if it comes earlier we are entering a window where a wave of approval orders for all the current applicants *COULD* occur pic.twitter.com/u6dBva1ytD
— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) November 8, 2023
Table of Contents
11/17 will be the first approval window for Bitcoin spot ETF
According to Seyffart's latest data posted on the Bloomberg terminal, there are currently a total of 12 asset management companies applying for Bitcoin spot ETFs. The closest review date is in 8 days, which is on November 17th, with Hashdex and Franklin Templeton's Bitcoin spot ETF approval deadline, followed by Global X on November 21st.
Although Seyffart still believes that the highest probability falls on January 10th next year, he estimates that the likelihood of Bitcoin spot ETF approval by then is as high as 90%. However, if approval comes earlier, it will enter another window, and all current applicants have the chance of approval.
The first approval window will close on November 17th. Seyffart stated:
In theory, from now until January 10, 2024, the SEC can make decisions on the top 9 in that list at any time.
Grayscale continues to communicate with the SEC, Bitcoin surges to 36K
According to their data, Grayscale's approval date has not been updated yet, and we have not seen any federal announcements regarding the SEC's acceptance of its GBTC application for transformation. However, after news came out at the end of August this year that a judge ruled "SEC must review GBTC's transformation again," the discount on GBTC has narrowed all the way to 12.26%. Today, it was reported that the SEC has started negotiations with Grayscale on the details of converting GBTC to a Bitcoin spot ETF.
Grayscale has been in continuous communication with the SEC, GBTC discount narrows, and GLNK premium reaches as high as 223%
Bitcoin also broke through the 36K mark earlier, reaching a high of $36,106.