US election voting is coming to an end, Mt. Gox transfers Bitcoin again, BTC surges to 70,000 euros at one point

The official voting for the U.S. presidential election has begun, with the three major U.S. stock indices closing higher on 11/5. Nvidia has once again surpassed Apple to become the company with the largest market capitalization. Bitcoin surged to $70,577 last night. According to analysis by CryptoQuant, Bitcoin has historically performed well in the months following the U.S. presidential election, indicating a favorable outlook for Bitcoin in the market.

Market Focus on the U.S. Presidential Election

According to a report by CNBC, despite the increased market volatility due to the U.S. presidential election on Tuesday, the latest Consumer Confidence Index from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce shows that consumer confidence in stocks has reached an all-time high.

Historical data indicates that since 1980, the three major U.S. stock indices have seen an increase from Election Day to the end of the year in election years. However, in the short term, all three indices have experienced a decline in the week following Election Day, followed by a recovery within about a month.

With voting still ongoing, according to preliminary results from the national exit polls by CNN, the majority of voters say they had already made up their minds before Election Day. Two-thirds of voters express some confidence in the fairness and accuracy of this year's election. However, the vast majority, about seven in ten, express concerns about election-related violence.

Mt. Gox Distributing Creditors Again?

According to a tweet from blockchain data company Arkham, the former largest global cryptocurrency exchange Mt. Gox moved approximately 32,371 BTC worth $2.2 billion to an unmarked wallet last night. This is the largest transfer Mt. Gox has made in months, following a smaller transfer of 500 bitcoins last week.

As the wallets are unmarked, it is unclear whether these transfers are part of future distributions to Mt. Gox creditors. However, similar actions in the past have occurred before repayments were made through distributors like cryptocurrency exchanges Bitstamp and Kraken. According to Arkham data, Mt. Gox still holds 44,878 bitcoins, worth about $3.1 billion.

However, in mid-October, Mt. Gox once again postponed the final deadline for repaying assets to creditors from the original October 31, 2024, to October 31, 2025.

Bitcoin Surges Above $70,000 Last Night

Bitcoin surged to $70,577 last night. According to analysis from CryptoQuant, the daily inflow of Bitcoin into centralized exchanges was lower than previous U.S. election days, indicating a potential reduction in selling pressure. Since early October, the holdings of short-term Bitcoin holders have increased by 343,000 BTC, reaching 4.25 million BTC, showing renewed interest in the digital asset before the election.

Bitcoin has been strong relative to Ethereum and other altcoins, with investors showing a clear preference for Bitcoin over other assets, especially in uncertain market conditions. Bitcoin's dominance has recently risen to over 60%.

Historically, Bitcoin has performed well in the months following the U.S. presidential elections, with the following post-election performances:

• 2012: 22% increase
• 2016: 37% increase
• 2020: 98% increase

CryptoQuant analysts also suggest that the price pattern of Bitcoin in 2024 is very similar to that of 2016 so far, and if positive catalysts emerge, a similar rebound could occur post-election.