Ark Invest Calls for Tesla to Reach $2600 by 2029, Musk: Challenging but Achievable!

Ark Invest, a firm that has always strongly supported Tesla, has released its expected value for the year 2029, setting it at $2,600 per share. Elon Musk responded: "Extremely challenging, but achievable!"

Tesla's Estimated Price for 2029 is $2,600

According to the latest report released by ARK Invest, the expected value for Tesla in 2029 is $2,600 per share, with a bear market scenario price of $2,000 and a bull market scenario price of $3,100.

Robotaxi Expected to Contribute Significantly to Revenue

ARK predicts that by 2029, nearly 90% of Tesla's enterprise value and profit will be attributed to the Robotaxi business. Additionally, electric vehicles may account for about one-fourth of total sales volume, representing 10% of Tesla's profit potential.

ARK believes that Tesla will introduce Robotaxi in the next two years, which is expected to significantly contribute to Tesla's revenue and profit, thus projecting Tesla's stock price to reach $2,600 by 2029.

If the factors of Robotaxi are removed from the model, the target price will decrease to $350. However, ARK considers the probability of this happening to be very low. If it does happen, Tesla may first launch a vertically integrated ride-hailing service for strategic reasons.

Optimus Robot's Impact Still Insignificant

ARK assumes that Optimus has a minimal impact on the target. Over the next decade, Tesla is expected to become a leading manufacturer and service provider of physical space mobile robots, as it will have the opportunity to leverage knowledge gained from Robotaxi, as well as its internal inference chips, training computations, and manufacturing.

Tesla expects Optimus to complete useful factory tasks by the end of the year. Assuming Optimus can absorb 10-20% of Tesla's labor time and be as productive as or twice as productive as humans, Optimus could save Tesla $3-4 billion in 2029, representing 1-2% of manufacturing costs.

Tesla's Stock Price Dropped by 30% This Year, ARK Continues to Accumulate

According to Stockcircle's statistics, ARK Invest first purchased Tesla stock in the fourth quarter of 2016. They have since acquired a total of 5.18 million shares of Tesla stock, valued at $884 million. The investment cost was $474 million, with an investment return rate of 86%.

Despite Tesla's recent poor stock performance, with a 30% decline this year while other tech giants surged to new highs, ARK Invest increased their holdings by 36.2% in the first quarter of 2024, adding 1.38 million shares, indicating a continued strong belief in Tesla's fundamentals.