Polymarket Ethereum ETF prediction results spark controversy, crypto gamblers at odds
The decentralized prediction platform Polymarket saw a betting volume of up to $13.22 million on the approval of the "Ethereum spot ETF," with the final outcome being approval (Yes). However, crypto gamblers have mixed opinions on the result.
Polymarket's election gambling controversy, how did I get caught up in it?
Table of Contents
Ethereum ETF Prediction Event Sparks Controversy
A prediction event on Polymarket involving whether an Ethereum spot ETF will be approved by May 31 has attracted over $13.22 million in bets. However, the final outcome of the approval seems to lack detailed explanation, leading to a dispute between the bettors who are unwilling to concede, resulting in a play on words.
The main point of contention is that while the SEC has approved the "19b-4 form" for eight Ethereum spot ETFs, the S-1 registration statement has not yet become effective, thus the Ethereum spot ETF cannot officially trade.
Approval for Eight Ethereum Spot ETFs Granted, Listing Still Pending
Supporters of Approval: ETF Has Indeed Passed
Supporters of the approval argue that:
The prediction market specified "approval," not that the ETF must commence trading by May 31.
The 19b-4 form represents the final approval, with the S-1 approval typically following closely behind.
Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart also supports this view, stating that although he and another analyst, Eric Balchunas, always mention the need for both 19b-4 and S-1 approvals, based on historical cases, specifically after the 19b-4 approval, S-1 approval is just a matter of time.
Opponents Emphasize Ethereum ETF Has Not Been Approved
Opponents argue that for an ETF in the U.S. market to trade, both the 19b-4 and S-1 approvals are required, hence without the S-1 document, a favorable outcome is impossible.
Some users in the Polymarket comments section quoted a tweet from the head of digital asset research at VanEck, Matthew Sigel, indicating that until both documents are signed by the SEC, the Ethereum ETF is not considered "approved."
External media Cointelegraph reached out to Polymarket's developer Adventure One QSS Inc. and the prediction platform UMA for comment but received no response.
