ETHEREUMREGULATION

The likelihood of SEC approving an Ethereum spot ETF by 5/23 is decreasing.

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The likelihood of SEC approving an Ethereum spot ETF by 5/23 is decreasing.

The SEC's Division of Trading and Markets held a meeting with Coinbase last week on 3/6 regarding the transformation of Grayscale Ethereum Trust into an ETF. However, the SEC staff has not provided any comments to the issuer regarding the statements made by the three key figures who played important roles in the news of the approval of Bitcoin spot ETF. This is not a good sign, and the likelihood of the SEC approving an Ethereum spot ETF before May 23 is decreasing.

Bitcoin spot ETF news relies on these three people: analysts and journalists dominate the latest ETF news.

The Probability of Approving Ethereum Spot ETF Before May 23 is Decreasing

Fox Business reporter Eleanor Terrett believes that the probability of approving an ETH spot ETF before May 23 is decreasing. According to her conversations with insiders, recent meetings have been very one-sided, with issuers and custodians trying to rally SEC staff to push forward the process, but staff have not engaged meaningfully as they did with the Bitcoin spot ETF. She was told the following reasons:

  • SEC Chairman Gary Gensler believes he has appeased the entire industry by approving the Bitcoin spot ETF.
  • Influential anti-crypto politicians, such as Senator Elizabeth Warren, are already angry with the SEC's approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF and are rallying against the possibility of the same happening for ETH.

Bloomberg ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart also share similar views. They believe that prior to the approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF, SEC staff had multiple meetings with stakeholders, providing clear guidance and comments, which led to a smooth issuance of the Bitcoin spot ETF. However, there has been little indication of such progress this time.

May Not Be Until 2025?

In early March, the SEC once again postponed the approval of the BlackRock Ethereum ETF. The controversial issue of Ethereum's staking functionality and rewards also remains a topic of debate. Previously, Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart told Blockworks on January 26 that he believed there was a 60% chance the SEC would approve all Ethereum spot ETFs by May this year. However, if it doesn't happen by May 23, he suggests it may not occur until 2025.

ETH Surpasses $3,700, SEC Once Again Delays BlackRock Ethereum ETF

According to compiled data, there are currently eight issuers applying for Ethereum spot ETFs, with the nearest SEC review date being VanEck's on 5/23.