Blue and White Coalition in Crisis, Did Lai Ching-te Lie Down and Win? "Polymarket online prediction platform" odds 1.5

The 2024 Taiwan presidential and legislative elections are approaching. Yesterday's joint press conference by the blue and white camps sparked speculation from various parties. Today, we also saw the blue and white camps separately registering for candidacy. In addition to the multiple polls that were fiercely debated during the press conference, after the blue and white camps reached a consensus at the end of the press conference, several professional polls also indicated that Democratic Progressive Party candidate Lai Ching-te's support rate is slightly higher than the other two candidates in the three-way race.

Of course, we all know that polls are subject to various manipulations or intentional influences. At this time, prediction markets, which include sports event predictions, election result predictions, and predictions on whether a war will end, serve as an indicator of public sentiment. In the world of blockchain, there are prediction platforms, such as Polymarket, which we have introduced before. It is a decentralized event prediction platform built on the Polygon chain, where users can purchase binary options for specific events.

Warning: According to Article 88-1 of the Republic of China's Presidential and Vice Presidential Election and Recall Act, participating in presidential and vice presidential election betting can result in a maximum of six months imprisonment. Readers are urged not to break the law.

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Taiwan Presidential Election Becomes Prediction Topic

As shown in the image below, Polymarket provides binary options for the election, with the current price for a unit of Lai Ching-te's election at $0.66. In the event of Lai Ching-te's election, the value will converge to $1 per unit; otherwise, the value will drop to zero. There are also reverse options available.

A Platform that Predicts Results from Tech Industry to Wars

From the operational model above, we can see that Polymarket adopts the pari-mutuel betting method. This platform does not involve setting prices, making it one of the most decentralized operational models for an event prediction platform.

In addition to Taiwan's election, many major events worldwide fall within Polymarket's prediction scope, such as whether Sam will return to OPENAI, or if there will be a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, and even if LayerZero will airdrop tokens.

Platform Previously Fined

Through prediction platforms, we can gain additional insights into election polls. Polymarket, through fund predictions, provides a more realistic estimation of the probability of major events worldwide occurring. We look forward to them offering more diverse event predictions in the future.

However, although Polymarket is a platform that does not participate in price setting and is the largest on-chain event prediction platform, its fund management model still tends towards centralization. Therefore, when making purchases, attention should be paid to their inherent risks. Additionally, as these platforms actually violate commodity trading laws, there are concerns about being regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and having been previously fined, which is worth noting.

According to Article 88-1 of the Republic of China's Presidential and Vice Presidential Election and Recall Law, participation in presidential and vice presidential election betting can be punishable by up to six months in prison. Readers are urged not to break the law.