Research institution Messari | 2022 Predictions Report Summary Part.1

The research institution Messari's 2022 prediction report is divided into ten chapters, spanning over 130 pages. It contains a significant amount of content that is emotional and in colloquial language. Here are the key points:

Top Ten Chapters

• Top Ten Events and Investment Themes
• 10 Key Figures to Watch
• Ten Key Thoughts on Bitcoin
• US Cryptocurrency Policy
• Market Infrastructure
• NFT and Web3 Systems
• DeFi 2.0
• Ethereum, Layer 2, and Cross-Chain Bridges
• DAO within DAO
• Additional Inclusions: Speak Freely

Chapter One: Top Ten Events and Investment Themes

1. Messari emphasizes that currency policies, government, and corporate monopolies make cryptocurrencies and Web 3 inevitable.

Page nine predicts for 2022: Things will get worse before the "real" world gets better. Inflation will remain above 5% for the year with 70% confidence, and year-end rate hikes will drag the stock market into a quagmire, hurting growth stocks with 70% confidence the S&P will decline.

Short-term outlook is positive for cryptocurrencies, but there are medium-term risks as more cryptocurrency companies and users are blocked and scrutinized by Western-backed Biden policies targeting tech companies and banks.

2. Messari believes Web 3 is fully prepared, and by 2030, the influence of the cryptocurrency market will surpass mobile communications, even the internet.

Page ten predicts three possible scenarios:

• Probably experience a peak by the end of Q1 2022, followed by a shallow, yet painful bear market for several years.
• Rise to a $20 trillion bubble market and continue for a year, rivaling the dot-com bubble of the past.
• Slow and steady market highs continue.

3. The growth of Web 3 will involve three emerging areas: NFTs, DAO infrastructure, and cross-chain bridges.

Page eleven notes a detachment in the cryptocurrency field: Cryptocurrencies are no longer just a collective term; enthusiasts in areas such as DeFi, yield farming, NFTs, etc., can each become full-time experts, even requiring small teams to keep up with developments. Due to information asymmetry, at this crucial development stage, private investment funds will have a huge and ongoing advantage.

4. How high can cryptocurrencies rise:

• Bitcoin - You can observe the "market value to realized value" at market value to realized value, where every time MVRV reaches 3, it is the best time to take profits; when it falls below 1, it is a good time to buy. Messari believes when it reaches 3 again, the price of Bitcoin will be between $100,000 and $125,000.

• Ethereum - Unlikely to surpass Bitcoin, as it leans towards multi-chain parallelism due to scaling difficulties and public chain competition.
• Solana and other public chains - These Ethereum killers have enough silver bullets to compete; whether you go all-in or diversify investments, they are closely related to ETH.
• DeFi - Although top protocol token prices are stagnant, if you believe decentralized finance can replace traditional banking systems, it will bring good returns. However, the protocols are currently facing intense competition and regulatory scrutiny, coupled with technical vulnerabilities that may lead to systemic failures, and high Gas Fees are crippling their economy.
• NFTs - Due to the non-fungibility and illiquidity of NFTs, it is difficult to derive any reliable form of market value. The estimated NFT market value has a lot of room for growth relative to the current situation, indicating that issuers of NFTs and infrastructure construction still have many opportunities.

5. Assets held by the top 20 funds: DOT, NEAR, ROSE, LUNA, AR, CKB, SOL, AVAX, DODO, FIL, KEEP, MINA, GRT, UNI

6. Messari's analyst team's investment portfolio:

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