Bitcoin surges to $73,620, just a step away from its all-time high

Bitcoin reached $73,620 last night, just a step away from this year's 3-year high of $73,777. With the U.S. presidential election approaching, analysts at Bitfinex stated that election-driven momentum, strong technical indicators, and increasing positions in derivative products all indicate an improving price outlook for Bitcoin.

Bitcoin to Continue Rising in the Fourth Quarter

Bitfinex analysts point out that improvements in technical indicators, new inflows of funds into Bitcoin spot ETFs, and broader macro factors, including speculation on Trump's election victory and seasonal strength in the fourth quarter market, are all supporting the ongoing momentum for Bitcoin to rise.

The narrative of "Trump trade" and the seasonal rise in the fourth quarter have created a perfect storm for Bitcoin, and despite possible fluctuations before the election, an exciting period lies ahead.

With the increased likelihood of Trump's victory, what is prevailing in the market? Is Bitcoin also part of the Trump trade?

Option Market Indicates Bitcoin Could Reach $80,000 by Year End

The options market also reflects a positive outlook for Bitcoin, with analysts stating that call options with a price of $80,000 on December 27 are becoming increasingly popular, showing confidence in a post-election rebound that could push Bitcoin to over $80,000 by year end. However, the current high implied volatility suggests price fluctuations around the election date. Analysts added that the premium on options expiring in the week of the U.S. election has increased, with implied volatility peaking shortly after November 5, indicating potential short-term turbulence.

Arthur Hayes, the founder of BitMEX, recently released "Fuel for Bitcoin," discussing China's QE which may take time, but remains optimistic about Bitcoin's future. The National People's Congress Standing Committee of China will convene from 11/4 to 11/8, expected to approve further details of fiscal support.

Arthur Hayes: China's QE takes time, Fuel for Bitcoin!

Continuous Inflows for Bitcoin Spot ETFs

Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $480 million on Monday, marking the highest single-day inflow in two weeks. IBIT from BlackRock's iShares is the largest Bitcoin spot ETF by asset value, with continuous inflows for 11 days. Overall, Bitcoin spot ETFs have experienced only one day of outflows since 10/11.