Binance Coin (BNB) - A Safe Bet for Profit? Let's Use Data to Review the Performance of New Coins Over the Past Year!

Listing on Binance is something that most coins are looking forward to, especially for Altcoins. So how have these coins listed on Binance performed? Are there any investment opportunities among them? This report collects and organizes data on the coins newly listed on Binance from 2020 to 2021 to analyze the overall performance of new listings on Binance and provide the author's strategic considerations on potential investment opportunities. Note: All analysis is based on data-driven assessments and not investment advice, please refer with caution!

This article is authorized for reprint from BxmZhao and li zeng, originally titled "Research Report on Performance and Investment Strategy of New Coins Listed on Binance 1," original article.)

Research Method

Research on the Selection of Currencies

We selected all new currencies launched from 2020 to 2021 (including the main zone and innovation zone, as well as those delisted later on Binance). The reason for choosing this timeframe is that it is closer to us, and during this period, BTC, as a benchmark in the cryptocurrency circle, also had significant trend effects. In this report, we selected currencies paired with BUSD or USDT, as most people follow a USD-based approach and focus more on the fiat currency effects of the currencies. We will conduct a comparative analysis on the BTC trading pairs in the future. By crawling Binance's announcement data and filtering by time, combined with manual screening, we obtained the currency data, see *Appendix 1*.

Data Collection and Processing of Currencies

We selected to collect daily K-line data for the currencies in the appendix, as the daily K-line is a more suitable interval for spot trading. Then, we used our self-made tools to call the corresponding data through the Binance API.

Next, we conducted useful data analysis, mainly including [opening price] [opening date] [first-day closing price] [lowest price] [date of lowest price] [highest price] [date of highest price]. The above data is used to describe the overall performance of the currencies.

To discover potential investment opportunities, we further calculated [the percentage of the lowest price relative to the opening price] [the interval between the date of the lowest price and the opening date] [the increase in the highest price relative to the opening price] [the interval between the date of the highest price and the opening date] [the increase in the highest price relative to the lowest price] [the interval between the date of the highest price and the date of the lowest price], and developed strategies based on this data. Due to the large amount of data obtained, it is not included in the report appendix. If needed, please contact us. Our contact information is: @BxmZhao @ctguxl

Research on the Decline Rate of the Lowest Price Compared to the Opening or Closing Price

By studying the lowest price of 130 selected currencies, we obtained the following data:

Where:

Relative to the opening price: Average: -15%; Median: -47.59%

Relative to the first-day closing price: Average: -52.97%, Median: -56.83%

We plotted a percentage bar graph as follows:

Conclusion:

1. We can see that in most cases, the opening price is not a good entry point.
2. 50% of the currencies experience a decline of 40% to 80% from the opening price.
3. 17% of the currencies do not drop below the opening price after the opening, and the data of these currencies in subsequent performance is better than that of other currencies. Of course, about 50% of these data were listed on Binance in the past 4 months, so these data need to be continuously monitored.
4. Overall, the introduction of [first-day closing price] does not have a particularly significant impact on the overall results.
5. The main affected area is items >0%, which are likely prices you cannot buy at the opening price.

Research on the Interval Between the Date of the Lowest Price and the Opening Date

By studying the interval between the date of the lowest price and the opening date of 130 selected currencies, we obtained the following data:

Where: Average: 75 days; Median: 51 days

We plotted a percentage bar graph as follows:

Conclusion:

We can see that 54% of the currencies will reach the lowest point within 2 months, the probability of reaching the lowest point within 3 months is 69%, and within 5 months is 85%.

Research on the Increase Rate of the Highest Price Compared to the Opening or Closing Price

By calculating the increase rate of the highest price relative to the opening price for 130 selected currencies, we obtained the following data:

Where:

Relative to the opening price: Average: 1057%; Median: 177%

Relative to the first-day closing price: Average: 549%; Median: 125%

We plotted a percentage bar graph as follows:

Conclusion:

1. We can see that only 3% of the currencies on Binance have their highest price lower than the opening price, meaning there is a 97% probability of making a profit if you buy at the opening price. This shows the strength of Binance.
2. 50% of the currencies' highest price will be 1 to 3 times the opening price, 17% chance of 5 to 10 times, and 8% chance of 20 to 50 times.
3. The average multiplier is around 10 times, which can be seen as the expected return, making it a very attractive return rate.
4. The main impact is on the <1 times category, meaning if you buy at the first-day closing price, you have a 14% chance of making a loss.
5. The probability of the first-day closing price being 1 to 3 times increases to 63%.

Research on the Interval Between the Date of the Highest Price and the Opening Date

By calculating the interval between the date of the highest price and the opening date for 130 selected currencies, we obtained the following data:

Where: Average: 137 days; Median: 85 days

We plotted a percentage bar graph as follows:

Conclusion:

1. We can see that 35% of the currencies will reach their highest point within the first month after opening, 67% within 6 months, and 84% within 9 months.
2. The first month and the 6 to 9 months are two obvious peak periods. The possible reasons are: some new coins initially have hype when listed, attracting funds and quickly entering a growth period, then becoming weak; some new coins start off slowly but continuously attract funds, entering a period of price manipulation after enough funds are raised.
3. Through a more detailed study of the data, we found that when the peak period is further away from the opening, the average multiplier of the highest price to the opening price is higher. One possible explanation is that the manipulation is more thorough, leading to more aggressive price manipulation.

Research on the Multiplier Between the Highest and Lowest Prices

By calculating the multiplier between the highest and lowest prices for 130 selected currencies, we obtained the following data:

Where: Average: 1410%; Median: 644%

We plotted a percentage bar graph as follows:

Conclusion:

1. We can see that nearly half, reaching 44%, have a probability of reaching up to 6 times from the bottom.
2. There are concentrated ranges at 2 to 3 times, 10 to 15 times, and 20 to 50 times, with significant differences in multiplier rates between them, showing a discrete distribution. Possible reasons are: new coins either end with simple multiples (similar to speculative trading) or surge at terrifying rates (similar to value discovery).

Research on the Time Interval Between the Date of the Highest Price and the Date of the Lowest Price

By calculating the time interval between the date of the highest price and the date of the lowest price for 130 selected currencies, we obtained the following data:

Where: Average: 139 days; Median: 114 days

We plotted a percentage bar graph as follows:

Conclusion:

1. We can see that the probability of reaching the highest point within 4 months of the lowest price is 57%, within 6 months is 73%, and within 9 months is 89%.
2. The first 4 months and the 6 to 9 months are two peak periods. If there is no strong upward trend after 9 months, the likelihood of reaching a new high is low.

Research on Which Occurs First, the Highest Price or the Lowest Price

Through data analysis, we obtained the following results:

Conclusion:

From the data, there is a slightly higher probability of the lowest price occurring first, so the intuitive judgment that "listing on Binance leads to a price drop" is not entirely unfounded.

Research on Can You Buy at the Opening Price on the First Day

Here, we are not talking about buying in the first few minutes of opening, but whether you can buy at the opening price before the end of the first trading day. Through data analysis, we obtained the following results:

Conclusion:

Many people intuitively feel that it is almost impossible to buy at the opening price on the first day. However, from the data, there is a 41% probability, close to 50%, of achieving this. Sometimes intuition is not very reliable.

The above are most of the conclusions we have preliminarily analyzed based on the data. You can analyze the existence of investment opportunities and develop investment strategies based on the above results.

Note: All data in this report is sourced from Binance API data and announcement data, and the conclusions drawn are not a basis for investment.

Appendix 1: List of new currencies on Binance (2020-2021)